FFBL reported revenues of PKR55.9bn and PAT of PKR10.8bn (EPS: PKR11.53) representing impressive YoY growth of 65%, driven by high DAP prices in local and international markets, and over 76% increase in urea prices since Dec10 amid gas curtailment at Sui Network based fertilizer plants

   Flat 4QCY11 results despite higher prices were due to 38% lesser urea volumes and 30% decline in DAP off-takes compared to 4QCY10 on the back of exacerbated gas curtailment

   Agri input prices spiraled south in the wake of weak demand from India and other major consumers. Hence, future outlook for the prices depends on how the demand from these countries pans out post 1QCY12. Phos-acid is expected to soften when the price finally settles

   FFBL expects gas curtailment to exacerbate in CY12, their gas supply will resume in Mar12

   Easing international DAP prices are expected to bring local prices south, which will result in significant DAP sales growth of 8% in the country in CY12

   Financial close for wind power projects is expected in 1QCY12 and COD in CY13, tariff for the projects is yet to be determined

   Depending on how phos-acid prices settle post 1QCY12 and international DAP prices when imports are resumed, FFBL’s DAP margins will be determined. We currently have an ADD stance on the stock trading at Dec12 P/E of 7.0x